Illustration: Chen Xia/Global Times

Throughout 2021, US President Joe Biden and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell insisted that consumer price rises were only “transitory”, and inflation would fade away in the face of more federal spending, key of which was Biden’s slated $1.8 trillion ‘Build Back Better’ initiative. It turned out they were very wrong. Now, the vast American middle class and working poor are paying dearly for persistently uncontrolled price rises. 

On Wednesday, the US Labor Department reported that inflation finished 2021 at its highest level since 1982 with the consumer price index up 7 percent in December versus a year ago, which rose from 6.8 percent in November. Yes, the world’s largest economy now faces an inflation crisis that the country hasn’t seen in the past 40 years. If the Federal Reserve doesn’t move immediately to tighten policy, the CPI is likely to elevate to 9-10 percent by the summer of 2022. 

Many ordinary Americans are annoyed and angry, claiming the Biden administration has “re-engineered incompetency by re-igniting inflation”. Why people are so sensitive to price rises? Inflation is a regressive tax which disproportionately harms low income groups and the retirees. A deposit of $10,000 last year is now worth about $9,300, and next year it could be worth less than $9,000, a vivid example of the erosive effect of inflation. 

Undoubtedly, inflation has become a political liability for Biden and his fellow Democrats, who face the crucial mid-term election later this year. Recent poll numbers reveal Biden’s job approval has plunged to 34 percent, even lower than his predecessor Donald Trump at their second-year mark in the White House. 

Sobering 7-percent inflation represents an utter policy failure of the US government. 

Throughout 2021, Biden administration officials and the Federal Reserve largely played down the breath and persistence of steadily rising prices. Biden himself was the cheerleader for the $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue spending bill which he signed into law in March, on top of more than $3.9 trillion in coronavirus relief that Trump signed off on in 2020. If not for the maverick Democrat Senator Joe Manchin, another colossal fiscal stimulus, the $1.85 trillion investment in social and environmental programs, would have been heaped upon the inflation bonfire. 

The US central bank has played a significant role in fueling inflation. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee revealed that Powell and his lieutenants had incessantly spoken against tightening money policy to rein in price rises, and stubbornly maintained the US’ benchmark interest rate close to zero. They have even refused to wind down the monthly bonds-buying policy – also called quantitative easing, despite clear signs of excess monetary growth and rising inflation.

Biden administration officials have consistently refused to withdraw the extraordinary fiscal and monetary support to buoy up the US economy since the 2008-09 Great Recession is an indication that they are detached or disconnected from reality. Also, the Federal Reserve, under Powell, has increasingly succumbed to politicization. No wonder that there are a growing number of Americans now taking issue with the flawed policy of the US government, saying that Biden, by printing and spending money, has burdened the country with the highest inflation in four decades. 

But Biden remains in denial. In July he said: “there is nobody suggesting there’s unchecked inflation on the way – no serious economist.” And, Biden’s speech on Wednesday took solace in the 0.5 percent monthly inflation growth from November. The Labor Department report, Biden said, “shows a meaningful reduction in headline inflation” from November, and “we are making progress in slowing the rate of price increases”. 

But the fact is, even the monthly 0.5 percent rise in prices is nothing worth celebrating, meaning the US inflation keeps going up, with no sign of flattening out. To make things worse, employers are paying their employees more given the tight labor market. To offset across-the-board price hikes in food, energy, rent and furniture, workers are demanding higher salaries, which facilitates the set-in of a wage-price spiral, and as a result, the elevated inflation seems unlikely to level off in the foreseeable future. 

President Biden recently blamed American businesses for price-gouging and profiteering, but he should reflect on how much the prices of oil, coal, metals and other raw materials have risen in the past 12 months on the international market, because of his government’s loose monetary policy, and, how much his inheritance of Trump’s punitive trade tariffs imposed on China has led to price rises across the US economy. 

The tariffs, designed to undercut China’s economic growth, have punished ordinary households in the US.

Entering 2022, the Biden administration remains clueless on how to tame inflation. In addition to removing Trump’s tariffs, Biden needs to consider a few other issues impacting price rises, including the trajectory of the coronavirus and new variants, addressing global supply chain bottlenecks, and the opening of America’s doors to immigrants to alleviate the tighter labor market in the US.

In an economy as large as that of the US or China, it is always hard to predict what comes next, and the current unique circumstances – including the COVID-19 pandemic, reckless economic sanctioning measures imposed by the Biden administration on China, Russia and others, partisan politics on Capitol Hill, and exacerbating the wealth gap in the US – make it ever harder. 

A recent poll among US business CEOs reveals up to 60 percent of business leaders expect US inflation to keep rising until at least mid-2023. And, it’s insane for Biden officials to watch inflation spiral while doing little to mitigate it. The myth that the US government is able to keep pumping money into the system to perpetuate a prosperous America is falling apart. 

The author is an editor with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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President Biden has announced his roster to fill key vacancies on the Federal Reserve’s 7-seat Board of Governors. If confirmed by the Senate, Biden’s nominees would advance his economic agenda at the central bank. They would diversify the ranks of economic policymakers and likely tighten supervision of Wall Street.

These nominations follow in the wake of Biden’s decisions late last year to reappoint Jerome Powell to a second term as Fed chair and to elevate Lael Brainard as second in command. Powell and Brainard already serve as confirmed governors, but the Senate will also need to approve their four-year leadership posts. If the Senate confirms all five, Biden’s Fed appointees would reverse the heavy GOP-tilt of the Board engineered by the Trump administration.  

Here’s what you need to know.

Diversity counts

Biden has nominated two Black economists, Michigan State’s Lisa Cook and Davidson College’s Philip Jefferson, to seats on the Board. He has also named former Fed governor and Treasury official, Sarah Bloom Raskin, as the Fed’s vice chair of supervision, a position Congress created in the wake of the global financial crisis as the Fed’s top banking cop.

These appointments help to diversify the Fed’s almost exclusively white ranks. Since Congress revamped the Federal Reserve Act in 1935, creating the 7-seat Board of Governors, 82 people have served on the Board. Just three of them were Black men, and ten of them were white women. And while Biden’s nominations augment the Fed’s racial diversity, confirming Cook, Brainard, and Raskin would expand the number of women governors by just one, since both Raskin and Brainard already have Board service under their belts. Notably though, this would be the first Board with a majority (four) of seven seats filled by women governors.

Rough waters ahead?

Observers expect a broad swath of Senate Republicans to vote to confirm Powell, a Republican, to a second term as chair. However, it remains to be seen how many, if any, Republicans will vote to confirm the other four nominees. Of course, Senate Democrats—if they stick together—can confirm all four without any GOP support, since Democrats banned nomination filibusters back in 2013.

Like most Congressional decisions, Fed confirmation votes are more contentious today than they were even 15 years ago, before the global financial crisis. The figure below shows shrinking Senate support on final confirmation votes for Fed nominations since the Reagan administration. Of those nominees considered on the Senate floor between 1982 and 2011, only one, Alice Rivlin, received less than 94% of the vote. The most dramatic contests came in 2020: The GOP-led Senate rejected Trump’s nominee, Judy Shelton, by a vote of 47-50, and just barely confirmed another Trump nominee, Christopher Waller. Four other Trump picks never even made it to a floor vote.

Nor can Biden count on filling the Board swiftly. Prior to the financial crisis, nominees waited about three months on average for confirmation. After the crisis, the wait time ballooned closer to eight months. The Senate took nearly ten months to confirm Waller, a record delay for the contemporary Senate’s handling of Fed nominees. Even with Democrats in control this year, Republicans have found ways to slow down the Senate.

Beware partisan crosshairs

Decades of rising partisanship are seeping into senators’ views of the Fed, often turning otherwise low profile Board nominations into politically charged votes. At the same time, public attention to the Fed has grown with its expanding imprint on the economy.   

The central bank has played an outsized role in stemming the economic damage caused by the global financial crisis in 2007-08 and the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020-21. And with interest rates near zero, central bankers need to use more creative and often contentious tools to manage the US economy. Critics from both sides of the partisan aisle blame the Fed for either doing too much—or too little—to stem an array of old and new problems.

Add in rising expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates early this year to combat inflation and a hot economy, these nominees will face questions at the core of central banking—how fast and how soon to take away the punchbowl. Raising the price of money is never easy, but this Board could find tightening especially difficult given the addition of Biden’s governors committed to the Fed’s goal of a stronger and more racially inclusive labor market. 

The parties also disagree about whether the Fed can or should do more to combat climate change, especially in light of Congress’s own tentative steps. Democrats want the Fed to use its supervisory powers to force banks to address climate risk in their lending decisions; Republicans think such policies fall outside the Fed’s mandate. Partisans also contest whether the Fed should do more to redress racial economic inequities.

Presidents use appointments to advance their agendas. The Fed is no exception, despite the myth that central banks like the Fed are “independent.” But given the often partisan Senate confirmation process, Democrats will likely need to hang together to get Biden’s picks over the finish line.

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Source: Daniel Rubino/Windows Central

What you need to know

• Gartner reports that 88.4M PCs shipped last quarter (-5% YoY), with 339.8M for all of 2021 (+9.9% YoY).
• Demand for Google Chromebooks drove much of the quarterly decline.
• Annual PC shipment volumes are not expected to decline to pre-pandemic levels for at least 2-3 years.
• Post-pandemic, remote work, and “newly established ways of using PCs will remain regular practice.”

Following the report from Canalys, Gartner is now confirming similar data regarding shipments of PCs from last quarter as well as the entire year of 2021, which did better than expected.

Source: Gartner

Gartner claims 88.4 million PCs were shipped in Q4 2021, a 5% year-on-year (YoY) decline, and Canalys pegged the number slightly higher at 91 million. For all of 2021, Gartner’s report states 339.8 million PCs were shipped, which is very close to Canalys’s 341 million.

Interestingly, Gartner suggests the reason for last quarter’s decline was “modest consumer demand” for the holiday season, but also that the main driver was “the collapse in demand for Chromebooks.” That theme of Chromebook demand severely crashing has been circulating since Q3 2021, when a decline of 29.8% YoY was observed, a trend that is apparently continuing.

The rest of Gartner’s analysis is quite interesting. While they note this new data “likely signifies the end of the massive and unexpected growth in PC demand triggered by the pandemic,” the decline “only slightly tempered the PC market’s growth in 2021,” which was overall positive with a nearly 10% YoY increase over 2020.

Additionally, besides some slight weakening in demand from consumers and severe drops in Chromebooks, it was supply-chain constraints that again negatively affected the numbers and OEMs:

The U.S. PC market saw its second consecutive quarter of double-digit decline during the fourth quarter of 2021, with shipments declining 24.2% year-over-year. This decrease was largely driven by weak Chromebook shipments as demand from educational institutions continued to slow. While U.S. business PC sales were generally strong due to the recovering economy and the reopening of offices, supply chain delays impacted shipment volumes, especially in the large enterprise market. The holiday season also saw weaker PC sales than in 2020 due to modest consumer demand.

Those supply chain constraints are expected to abate it won’t be alleviated entirely until later in the year.

Top three (again): Lenovo, HP, and Dell

Source: Gartner

Breaking down by PC OEMs, Gartner has a similar ranking to Canalys in global PC shippers, with Lenovo in the top spot, followed by HP, Dell, Apple, and Acer.

Combining Lenovo, HP, Dell, and Acer, all four companies account for 72.7% of global PC shipments. That’s a slight increase from 71.8% in 2020 with the same four.

Apple’s PC shipments (not including iPads) accounted for 7.7% in 2021 and slightly increased from 6.9% in 2020.

Lenovo saw the most significant decline with a 12% drop for the fourth quarter of 2021 due to “slowed U.S. market, weak Chromebook demand, and supply chain issues, which impeded Lenovo’s ability to supply PCs to enterprise customers.”

HP, by comparison, navigated the supply chain better with only a 4% YoY decline tempered by “robust growth in the Asia Pacific market.”

Dell, again, is the objective winner reporting record revenue last quarter with $28.4 billion. It did the same for FYQ2 2022. Gartner’s numbers reflect this, noting it gained market share “notching a fifth consecutive quarter of growth.” Shipment volume exceeded 17 million units for the first time in the company’s history.

Gartner also breaks down the numbers to the US market, which varies from the global picture. Dell is the top shipper in the US, accounting for 28.5% of all PCs shipped last quarter, and HP was number two, Lenovo in third, and Apple in fourth.

Putting Dell, HP, Lenovo, and Acer together accounted for nearly 75% of all PCs shipped in the US for Q4 2021, down almost 5% YoY. Apple came in at 13%, up from 9.2% YoY, reflecting the accurate perception that Macbook prevalence is higher in the States than the rest of the world.

‘Fundamentally changed … PC behavior’

HP Omen 45L (2022).Source: Daniel Rubino / Windows Central

Finally, for forecasting, things are still looking better than anticipated. While many saw the pandemic as a temporary blip, the consensus now seems that it profoundly altered the market, resulting in the PC being more critical than ever.

Mikako Kitagawa, research director at Gartner, notes:

“The pandemic significantly changed business and consumer PC user behavior, as people had to adopt to new ways of working and living. Post-pandemic, some of the newly established ways of using PCs will remain regular practice, such as remote or hybrid workstyles, taking online courses and communicating with friends and family online.”

Because of this dramatic shift, Gartner expects the PC market to slow “for at least the next two years,” but “annual shipment volumes are not expected to decline to pre-pandemic levels in that period.” Just as interestingly, few, if any, believe things will go back to the way they were. Remote work and the creator/gig economy are the new normal.

That makes sense as the PC market is very mature: Most people own at least one, though increasingly at least two PCs. But, like smartphones (also a flat market), innovations around display technology, including folding screens and new form factors, will attempt to drive further adoption and increase those upgrade cycles. Things like always connected 5G PCs are also becoming increasingly important (especially in the education system), all of which should keep the PC market humming for the foreseeable future, just not at the same rate as 2020-2021.

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Washington’s biggest business lobby group has lashed out at the Biden administration over its competition policy, signalling that it would fight the “government over-reach” it claimed was threatening the US economic recovery.

“The Federal Trade Commission has taken such an aggressive stance against mergers and acquisitions that small and medium-sized businesses fear they’ll have worked for years to build something and have no exit strategy if they choose to sell,” said Suzanne Clark, in her first annual address as chief executive of the US Chamber of Commerce.

Clark attacked “modern-day trustbusters” from both parties, but singled out the FTC, which is chaired by Lina Khan, for trying to enlarge its powers.

Khan took over the commission with a remit to rewrite the way that US competition rules are enforced. She has already overturned several FTC policy statements that made it harder for the regulator to block takeovers and is now rewriting the guidance used by companies to decide whether a merger is legal.

These efforts have sparked increasingly outspoken criticism from the business community. Last November, the Chamber threatened to sue the FTC after the commission wrote to hundreds of business owners warning them against using false advertising and misleading endorsements.

The lobbying group said it would take legal action if that warning was followed up with enforcement action. “If bureaucrats and elected officials don’t stop getting in the way, we will stop them, because what’s at stake is no less than the future of our free market economy,” Clark said on Tuesday.

Lina Khan, a lawyer and critic of the power wielded by big technology companies, was selected by President Joe Biden to lead the Federal Trade Commission © Graeme Jennings/Washington Examiner/AP

The Chamber has also expressed anger that Rohit Chopra, a former Democratic FTC commissioner, cast several votes even after he had announced his departure from the commission to head up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

And it has accused US president Joe Biden of interfering with the commission’s impartiality when he signed a recent executive order instructing regulators to curb monopoly power in several sectors. That order was “based on the false premise that our entire economy is overconcentrated and stagnant”, Clark said.

Sean Heather, the Chamber’s senior vice-president of international regulatory affairs and antitrust, told the Financial Times last month that the FTC was collaborating unfairly with regulators in Europe to knock down potential deals. He said regulators in the US, EU and UK were using a “divide and conquer” strategy to prosecute cases outside their own jurisdictions.

Tuesday’s speech highlighted the growing friction between the business community and the Biden administration, whose early pandemic response and moves to enact a bipartisan infrastructure spending bill had largely received the Chamber’s support.

One source of tension has been the administration’s stalled social spending bill, known as Build Back Better, which would be funded in part by higher corporate taxes. Clark branded the legislation “a proposed partisan tax-and-spending spree to fund a massive expansion of the federal government”. 

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Corporate America has been similarly concerned by what it sees as a failure to strike new trade deals. The Biden administration was “consumed by caution and internal reviews”, while Europe was “charging ahead” with its trade agreements and China continued to become a more formidable commercial and strategic competitor, Clark said.

The speech contained no condemnation of Republican members of Congress whose continued support of false claims that the 2020 election was rigged against Donald Trump have alienated many business leaders.

However, Clark called for business leaders to defend those elected officials pursuing “common ground” policies. “We have to be as loud as the extremists . . . on the far left and the far right,” she argued.

US citizens also needed to unite behind “our democracy supporting our American enterprise system”, she said. “The US has enough enemies. Let’s stop being our own worst enemy.”

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has left open the possibility that the central bank could pick up the pace of its asset tapering if needed to fight inflation.

In testimony Tuesday before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, Powell said that he expects the topic will emerge at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in December.

 “At this point, the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are higher, and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases … perhaps a few months sooner,” Powell said at the hearing. 

On Nov. 3, the Fed announced that it would begin a phased tapering of its multibillion-dollar asset purchasing program. However, in the statement announcing the taper, Powell did leave open the door to speeding up the program, if needed. 

Inflation has picked up in the weeks since the initial taper decision was announced. Last week, the Personal Consumption Expenditure index, the Fed’s preferred inflation benchmark, rose 0.6% in October, and the Consumer Price Index hit a 30-year high after prices rose 6.2%.

Equity markets tumbled on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 652.22, or 1.9%, to 34,483.72. The S&P 500 Index dropped 88.27, or 1.9%, to 4,567.00. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 245.14, or 1.6%, to 15,537.69.

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Newly-built US terminals and record-high prices in Europe has made the US the world’s top exporter of liquified natural gas for the first time, according to Bloomberg data for December 2021. With president Joe Biden looking to spend billions of dollars to decarbonize the US economy, the US is leading the last growth market for global trade in fossil fuels. Power plants worldwide, especially in Asia, are boosting demand for gas as they scramble coal, which is more polluting and releases more CO2.

Less than a decade ago, the US was a net importer of gas, mostly from Canada. The fracking boom of the mid-2010s unleashed vast new volumes of domestic supply, and the US became a net exporter in 2017. Since then, US LNG export terminals have expanded their capacity by six-fold, catching up to the capabilities of Australia’s and Qatar’s ports.

US LNG developers had their eyes on the fast-growing Asian market, but the cancellation in December of a proposed terminal on the West Coast was a setback to that effort. The energy crisis that has unfolded in Europe over the past several months provided a decisive boost: Russian exports to Europe were lower than expected, and cheaper shipments from the US were diverted to fill the gap. The US is expected to maintain its leading position into 2022 as still more export facilities begin operating.

As the US exports more gas, it is using more coal

Meanwhile, as more US gas goes overseas, domestic prices are rising as well. As a result, many power producers in the US have opted to increase their reliance on coal. Coal consumption in the US was 22% higher in 2021 than in 2020, according to federal data, the first yearly increase since 2014.

In other words, the use of US fossil fuels to lower energy costs and emissions in other countries is contributing to an increase in domestic carbon emissions. That makes it harder for the US to meet the Biden administration’s goal to cut emissions in half by 2030.

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INDIANA — What we’re seeing in the aftermath of COVID-19 — supply chain issues, a need for more employees and businesses changing what they sell and for how much — are signs of change.

However, it may be too soon to understand exactly what that all may mean to businesses, the economy and our society, according to Ball State University economist Michael Hicks.

“I think it’s going to take 20 to 30 years to sort through the changes from COVID,” Hicks said.

And those that adapt will be the ones that survive.

“The economy in some ways is performing quite well,” he said.

Production in the United States hit a peak in the second quarter of 2021, although third quarter numbers aren’t available yet. There’s a huge demand for goods made in this country, but imports also saw new highs in the number of goods coming here and the money for them.

The problem is that the supply chain is getting used to the big increase of needs, and those who ship goods are looking for people to hire.

So firms make decisions on what they’ll ship and when.

“If I’m having trouble moving goods, I’m going to move the more valuable things first,” he said.

That would put computer chips for waiting vehicles ahead of things such as fruit coming from Mexico. Even with priorities, there’s a wait on vehicles and other items that need computer chips.

Cass County started its own ambulance and emergency medical service Dec. 15. However, it started off using loaned vehicles and loaned radios because of computer chip scarcity, and the new ambulances ordered in autumn are supposed to arrive in April.

Bill Thompson, owner of Mike Anderson Auto Group across Indiana, said his dealerships are turning the situation in favor of the customers.

“While the computer chips needed for vehicles is still a severe supply chain issue, we are finding that an ordered vehicle will be built faster than dealer stock, thus allowing the customer to obtain exactly what they are looking for,” Thompson stated.

Because of the shortage of new vehicles, the price of used vehicles has gone up. Thompson said that increases trade values, too, giving customers more equity on trade-ins or selling a vehicle to the dealerships.

The service and parts aspect of the business is also having supply issues, especially with parts that use computer chips, he said.

Moving goods

Hicks said that items from other countries are often waiting at ports for two to three weeks.

Adding to this logistics situation is the trucking industry having trouble finding qualified drivers.

“It’s a struggle for everyone, including us,” said Tracey Foutz, manager at Gangloff Industries in Logansport.

The company works mostly with Tyson Food and delivers to Indiana and its surrounding states, going as far as Kansas.

Gangloff isn’t seeing significantly more demand and always operates at the top of capacity for what the company can handle, Foutz said.

“For us, business has really looked the same,” she said. “We’re as busy as ever.”

But over the past year, the company has had up to seven trucks not being used.

“It’s hard to hire drivers,” she said.

The need for drivers has become so intense that the owner, Randy Ferguson, has been driving trucks for more than six months, she said. The company has also been relying on other trucking and logistics companies to help, she added.

Neil Stewart, manager of D&R Fruit Market in Logansport, said shipping logistics also affect the grocery business.

“Trucks are hard to get,” Stewart said. “Some of the pop is hard to get because of the lack of drivers to run the routes.”

He talks with suppliers about priorities, and the store usually gets the items, but the items sometimes don’t make the first trucks.

Stewart said they haven’t been able to get Dole salads at all, and some supplying businesses are closing. The company that makes popular cocktail rye bread is apparently shut down for good because of a lack of ingredients, Stewart said.

Hicks said that a significant reason for the higher demand of goods is that consumers have more money. They happened for two reasons: They received a stimulus check, and they spent less on things like vacations and eating out.

Harvard University’s Opportunity Insight website, which tracks credit card use, shows that people started spending less before distancing and business shutdowns, he said.

The biggest drop happened around March 18 to 19, and Indiana’s quarantine started March 24.

With all those factors, that’s about $2 trillion extra in the country’s households.

Shrinking workforce

At the same time, the workforce has gotten smaller for a number of reasons, said Hicks.

It lost 200,000 to 300,000 people because of COVID-19-related deaths.

Some people who hadn’t taken retirement decided to do so during the shutdown in 2020, and others chose early retirement — partially because of the booming economy.

“The value of retirement savings has just exploded over the last eight months,” Hicks said.

That makes retirement more available to workers younger than the traditional 65. And someone who lost their job at age 62 is likely to see retirement as an option.

People have also been starting their own businesses, from being Uber or Lyft drivers to making things like candles and crafts to providing services related to marketing and advertising.

Other potential workers aren’t returning because they have a fear of the virus or are concerned that their kids may need to go back to learning at home through computers, so they aren’t applying for jobs right now.

The workforce has also been reduced by those who caught the coronavirus and have the long-term symptoms that won’t allow them to return to work.

“That’s contributed to the lower employment rate because they can’t go back to work,” said Kevin Brinegar, president of the Indiana Chamber of Commerce. “Those numbers are validated by the disability insurance claims.”

In a recent press conference, state officials were told there’s not just going to be more life insurance claims, but also more disability claims, he added.

A number of media outlets are confirming that trend.

The search for workers

Farooq Shah, CEO of Midwest First Star Inc., which has 33 Hardee’s restaurants in Indiana and Ohio, said his company is getting hit hard at every store.

And it’s the worst he’s seen in more than 30 years in the business.

“(It’s) killing us,” he said. “It’s impossible to find employees, even if you’re paying double the money.”

In Indiana, minimum wage is $7.25 an hour, and his company is paying $15.

To attract more employees, they’ve gone from using two online employment sites to five of them, more than doubling costs. The company also will pay employees daily instead of once every two weeks, if the employee wants that.

Even when the chain does hire people, too often the new employees don’t show or show for just one shift.

The Logansport Hardee’s had shut down the restaurant mid-day after employees left.

He’s optimistic that he’ll see more applicants now that the holidays are over and has seen that starting in some spots already.

Shah said they have less trouble with the supply chain, which had been improving over 2021.

“It’s not that horrible,” he said. “It’s maybe two items missing. They’re late.”

Sometimes day deliveries are made at night.

The struggle to find employees has also required Midwest First Star to change its business plan.

They’ve taken some items off the menu, and they get by on minimum staff, a cook and a cashier manning a drive-thru while the lobby is closed.

Implementing change

Ivy Tech had been preparing for the changes before the pandemic, and on Dec. 22, the Kokomo-area school announced that it is offering classes in January to prepare its students for jobs in the supply chain and logistics field.

The program had been in the works before “supply chain” became a household word, and projected graduation date for the first students in the program is May 2023.

“Everything that Ivy Tech does is based on community need,” said Dean McCurdy, chancellor for the Kokomo Campus.

The school listens to the students and to area employers, and the pandemic exposed gaps that Ivy Tech is trying to fill.

Technology saw growth during the pandemic, and even before that, the school offered education in cybersecurity, smart manufacturing and digital integration, as well as expanded medical classes.

“The conversations we’re having today are quite interesting and very different than they were 20 years ago,” said McCurdy.

Economist Hicks said that one big cultural change is that more people are doing — and will do — remote work.

According to his research, from 2017 to 2020, jobs for remote workers averaged 1% to 1.5% of the ads for hiring, mostly for call centers or software editing.

Since April 2020, that average jumped to 13% to 15%, and about a third of that is part-time work.

Those kinds of jobs work well for retirees or parents who stay home with their kids.

He predicts that with more remote work, couples will have one person whose job requires their presence, while the other has skills that can work almost anywhere, such as medical workers.

Or one of them may run a home-based business.

Hicks also sees more couples where both work remotely, going into an office once or twice a week so there’s always a parent at home.

That could also reverse the 20th-century migration from small towns to cities.

If people only go into the office once a week, an hour-and-a-half drive is not so bad — especially if they’re paying the housing costs of a small town instead of a big city, he said.

People can live in northern Indiana while working in Chicago, Indianapolis or Fort Wayne.

Brinegar sees remote working as a potential positive happening.

“This could be a real boon to Indiana, but we have to play it well,” he said.

That means Indiana will have to be aggressive in getting broadband internet access to all rural areas and in pursuing grants for that and other matters.

Hicks said these remotes workers won’t mean the end of cities, just that cities will have a bigger “footprint” beyond the current suburbs, he said.

Costs for clothing and vehicle maintenance will also drop for remote workers, he added.

Another change happening is how people eat.

Hicks said that when people started using their credit cards less, the amount that the country spent on groceries increased.

He predicts more of the younger people cooking because the pandemic forced them to learn, and there’ll be more meal kits for sale at grocery stores.

Young people also became more interested in home repairs, Hicks added.

Because of this and fewer workers, more hospitality businesses will have cut hours of operation, and some marginal ones will close.

There won’t be a need for fast food places and pharmacies to be open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, he said.

Is another shutdown possible?

But in the immediate future, what could happen if there’s another shutdown?

Brinegar said he doesn’t anticipate another shutdown, although it’s not out of the question.

“I’m not getting any signals that the governor is heading that way,” he said.

However, having social distancing and staying home again likely won’t mean the end for more businesses or a change in the economy.

“Another shutdown like we had in March (2020) will have little impact,” Hicks said.

We’re used to it now, he said.

We know how to handle it.

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The Euro is edging higher against the U.S. Dollar on Wednesday even though a U.S. private job growth report came in more than double expectations, likely increasing the chances of an earlier-than-expected Federal Reserve rate hike.

Lower Treasury yields are also contributing to the greenback’s weakness against the single-currency as traders await the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting due to be published later in the day.

Traders also seemed to shrug off a report that showed the Euro Zone’s economic recovery stuttered in December as a renewed wave of COVID-19 infections curtailed growth in the bloc’s dominant service industry.

At 14:19 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1329, up 0.0042 or +0.38%. On Tuesday, the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) settled at $104.89, down $0.10 or -0.10%.

In U.S. economic news, payroll processing firm ADP reported that private job growth totaled 807,000 for the month, well ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 375,000 and the November gain of 505,000. The November total was revised lower from the initially reported 534,000.

Additionally, the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting, due to be published at 1900 GMT, could underscore U.S. policymakers’ newfound sensitivity to inflation and their readiness to act.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1386 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1272 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor range is 1.1386 to 1.1272. The EUR/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at 1.1329 to 1.1343.

On the downside, the major support is a long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1291. This is followed by a short-term Fibonacci level at 1.1262.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a short-term 50% level at 1.1397.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1329 and 1.1343.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1343 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the move to extend into 1.1386, followed by 1.1397.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1329 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 1.1291, followed closely by 1.1272 and 1.1262.

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March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly lower shortly after the opening on Wednesday as the optimism with which the benchmark index started the year showed some signs of waning, following yesterday’s potentially bearish closing price reversal top. Meanwhile, volume is a little on the light side as investors waited for key Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released.

At 14:48 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4774.00, down 10.25 or -0.21%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $476.64, down $0.91 or -0.19%.

In U.S. economic news, payroll processing firm ADP reported that private job growth totaled 807,000 for the month, well ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 375,000 and the November gain of 505,000. The November total was revised lower from the initially reported 534,000.

Additionally, the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting, due to be published at 1900 GMT, could underscore U.S. policymakers’ newfound sensitivity to inflation and their readiness to act.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum will shift to the downside if sellers take out yesterday’s low at 4764.50.

A trade through 4808.25 will negate Tuesday’s closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 4747.50.

The minor range is 4747.50 to 4808.25. The index is currently straddling its 50% level at 4778.00.

The short-term range is 4520.25 to 4808.25. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 4664.25 to 4630.25 will become the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4778.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4778.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 4808.25. Taking out this level will signal a resumption of the uptrend. It could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4777.75 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out 4764.50 will shift momentum to the downside. This could trigger a fast break into 4747.50.

Taking out 4747.50 will change the main trend to down. If the selling pressure is strong enough, this could trigger an acceleration into 4664.25 to 4630.25. Look for buyers to come in on a test of this area.

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The Oak Park Estates Neighborhood Association invites neighbors and local businesses to a business fair and networking event this month.

The event starts at 1:30 p.m. Saturday, Jan. 15 at St. Augustine’s Episcopal Church on Kiest.

OPENA welcomes all business owners who live in our neighborhood, adjacent neighborhoods or whose business serves the residents of our neighborhoods to join us! Business owners will be able to talk about their business, network with residents and hand out materials on your business to residents. Residents will be able to network with the business owners and your neighbors!

Masks will be required indoors. Businesses that wish to participate should RSVP to oakparkestates1@gmail.com.

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