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NATO, — © Stephane de Sakutin, AFP/File
The world’s most conspicuously neutral country is joining a military alliance. It seems that Turkey and Hungary are now OK with Sweden joining NATO. The two countries had reservations, but after 12 months of diplomacy, these issues are now apparently resolved.
Russia is yet again on the losing side of a crucial strategic situation it quite unnecessarily created for itself. NATO was the great “existential threat” to Russia. Russia’s own actions in invading Ukraine caused NATO to expand. Finland and now Sweden are now added to NATO.
This also adds thousands of miles of possible combat area to Russia’s borders with NATO countries. It creates a huge catalog of more difficult logistics and fundamental military problems for Russia in the Baltic and Arctic.
For Russia’s enfeebled armed forces, those problems are pretty much insoluble. Russia doesn’t seem to understand that it’s not the Soviet Union and that this is a completely different strategic environment.
Nor does Russia seem to comprehend that nobody has or has ever had any particular interest in attacking it. Russian logic seems unable to escape the 1950s. The world was quite happy with the normalization of relations. The Cold War was over; nobody was complaining about that.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has been blocking Sweden’s NATO aspirations — © AFP Lillian SUWANRUMPHA
Russia reinvented the Cold War for some reason, sane or otherwise. Ukraine somehow became seen a convenient threat for the same irrational reasons. The net result was to reboot NATO and antagonize most of the world with nuclear threats.
It’s debatable whether even Stalin would have seriously considered any situation which put Russia in such a useless strategic position and so far out of its depth. Russia is now playing to everybody else’s strengths, not its own. Russia’s credibility has been gutted by these very bad moves. The macroeconomics are lousy and the economy is visibly shrinking. The war in Ukraine is lost. There are active rebellious forces operating inside Russia.
For Putin, things are actually worse. When Prigozhin’s rebellion began, nobody in Russia did a damn thing. A few phone calls were all that were required. The Russian army on the spot didn’t budge. It didn’t even blink. Nor did anyone else.
NATO. — © AFP/File Kerem Yücel
A point was being made. Putin needed help to manage Prigozhin, and that help probably came at a price. Never mind the current media campaign about the two settling their differences. The world saw what happened and what didn’t happen.
When a political leadership has to depend on favors, it’s losing badly. You can’t be a “strong leader” and be totally dependent on everyone else to rule. You can push a button, but the button may not feel like working. At least, not working for you.
You can see the Craigslist ad now:
Wanted: Political leadership for Russia. Must be able to tell the time and see the obvious. Previous applicants need not apply.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
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